Challenges to the Casualty Actuarial Profession 2016

Cyber Risks2IoT is not the same as lol (Internet of things, laugh out loud). The open internet, cloud computing, and the vast freedoms enhanced with mobile technology are already here. These present new risks for the actuarial community to become engaged.

Cyber risk is not the nascent concept assumed years ago. It is here today and has been with us for a while. Headlines read “Florida Driver in Fatal Self-driving Vehicle Accident,” but the alarm didn’t mention that the driver was speeding before striking a truck. But what about the potential for hacking an automated car’s data system as well as the inability of systems to read road infrastructure? How do casualty actuaries handle the uncertainty without sufficient data available? Stochastic vs. deterministic simulations? What are you seeing as solutions?

Cyber does not stop with automated vehicles. Cyber-crime is one of the top concerns of risk managers. We are gravitating towards a more interconnected world and data breaches are happening more often. This is an opportunity for actuaries to get involved. What are your thoughts on this potential premium of $3 billion+ per year potential?

Just to mention a few potential exposures: privacy, network security, media (including social medial content), and security breaches that would include legal, identity theft, and so on.

What are you seeing and thinking about BIG data? Is the quality of our data getting better or just more of it?

With our faster computer systems, we are able to run analyses with much larger bodies of data. Noise versus trends, and correlations that may or may not have a causal relationship are very important considerations. Are actuaries prone to using large bodies of data to prove a point or to find a solution? Use of SAS or R? Remember our industry doesn’t have tangible products, so data and information are vital.

How do you think iCAS will impact our profession?

On behalf of the CAS Risk Management Committee, what are your thoughts? Please share them by leaving a comment below.

Thanks for your input!


About Terry J. Alfuth

Terry J. Alfuth, FCAS, is a member of the CAS Risk Management Committee. He owns his own consulting firm, Actuarial Property & Casualty Consulting LLC located in Palm Beach, FL.